Tuesday, December 16, 2008

What is forex?

FOREX or Foreign Exchange market is the world largest financial market, where currency of one country is exchanged with another country through currency exchange rate system. Trader’s purpose is to get the profit as the result of foreign currencies purchase and sale. From latest assessment, Forex trading daily constitution is approximately average from 1.5 trillion to 2.5 trillion. . The free-floating of currencies being in the market turnover are determined by the supply and demand. The currency rate is actually run through telecommunication all over the network of banks 24 hours a day from 00:00 GMT on Monday to 10:00 pm GMT on Friday. Importance of human society event in the sphere of economy strongly influences the currency market. Traders gain the profit from the fluctuations in accordance with an agreed principle “buy cheaper- sell higher” or “sell higher-buy cheaper”. Forex is a continuously changing number financial system which exclusively create high trade turnover to all individual and corporative traders with an ensured liquidity of traded currencies. Due to the high potential profitability, therefore the higher risk should be essentially considered. Traders can only be the successful forex investors by going through proper training including an understanding of forex structure and types, the common techniques of analysis, the factors influencing currencies and potential risks, high confident prediction of the market movements with the trading tools and data. There are lots of simulation trading software on web, you can simply choose anyone of them for self training. This will help you to be in a better scenario. Most of the trading providers have the toll free phone number, so just call them up! Ask them question! Learn from them! Some of them may take initiative to consult you, so do write down the question from time to time.

There are many countries in world; so results different currency pairs. Among all of them, these are the popular in currency trading:

EUR/USD, USD/JPY, GBP/USD, USD/CHF, EUR/CHF, AUD/USD, USD/CAD, NZD/USD, EUR/GBP, EUR/JPY, GBP/JPY, CHF/JPY, GBP/CHF, EUR/AUD, EUR/CAD, AUD/CAD, AUD/JPY, CAD/JPY, NZD/JPY, GBP/AUD, AUD/NZD

Five Major Currencies are:

U.S dollar - The United States dollar is the world's main currency – an universal measure to evaluate any other currency traded on Forex.

Euro- Euro was designed to become the premier currency in trading by simply being quoted in American terms. Like the U.S. dollar, the euro has a strong international presence stemming from members of the European Monetary Union.

Japanese Yen- The Japanese yen is the third most traded currency in the world; it has a much smaller international presence than the U.S. dollar or the euro. The yen is very liquid around the world, practically around the clock.

British Pound - Until the end of World War II, the pound was the currency of reference. The currency is heavily traded against the euro and the U.S. dollar, but has a spotty presence against other currencies.After the introduction of the euro, Bank of England is attempting to bring the high U.K. rates closer to the lower rates in the euro zone.

Swiss Franc - Swiss franc is the only currency of a major European country that belongs neither to the European Monetary Union nor to the G-7 countries. Although the Swiss economy is relatively small, the Swiss franc is one of the four major currencies, closely resembling the strength and quality of the Swiss economy and finance.

To have a well focusing, you have to concentrate on less than 5 currency pairs( preferred the U.S. cross-currency pairs.)

Some traders see forex as a business, and some see it as a fortune. And even some traders think forex is an art. But anyway, its highly recommended to use pivot system in your trading plan or else you are trading blind.

10 Things You Should Beware of During Currency Trading:

  • Watch out of those who guarantee large profits.
  • Stay away from those who promise no financial free
  • Beware of those everything sounds very easy.
  • Don’t trade on Margin unless you have been trained
  • Please take cautious to online/phony transferring cash in online trading
  • Make sure its really interbank market
  • Job offer as Account Executive might lead you to use your money for currency trading
  • Need to ensure the company background
  • Avoid those company who won’t let you know their background
  • Don’t fully trust any agency or broker, put some effort to understand currency trading by yourself.

The Economic Situation Report and the Forex Market

The Forex market, like most investment markets, is often glued to economic reports that are published on a monthly or even quarterly basis.

Some of the more common economic reports or indicators that can influence and shape trade decisions in an investment market are the Consumer Price Index (CPI), the Gross Domestic Product (GDP), the Housing Price Index (HPI), and the Employment Situation Report. The Employment Situation Report is one of the most popular indicators around, where changes in the employment rate and hourly wage rates can influence overall currency rates.

What exactly is the Employment Situation Report?

The Employment Situation Report, also commonly called the Labor Report, is an economic indicator that basically reports on the number of people out of work in the country, as well as on general wage rates, etc. The first part of the Employment Situation Report is called the household survey, which surveys approximately 60,000 households throughout the country about those out of work. From that number, the general unemployment rate is calculated. In other words, the household survey is a very powerful survey that helps determine the country’s overall unemployment rate.

The household survey is basically a lagging indicator, which means that any changes that occur in the number of people out of work usually happen after changes in an economy. If the economy is strong, the number of people out of work will generally soon decrease (positive effect on the currency rate), while if the economy slows down, the effect on the number of unemployed people might not be felt until a few months later (negative effect on currency rate).

The household survey is also countercyclic in nature, which means that the overall unemployment rate moves in the opposite direction of the overall economic trends. If the economy is in a growth mode, that means that the unemployment rate will decrease, while if the economy is weakening, then the unemployment figure will increase.

The establishment survey, which is the second part of the Economic Situation Report, measures hours worked and overall hourly earnings throughout the country. It does this by surveying about 400,000 businesses nationwide. It is considered a coincident economic indicator, as it changes when the economy changes. If the number of hours worked and the overall wage increases, then the economy is moving in the same direction at the same time.

How Not To Exit A Forex Trade

Too many times I hear about new traders opening a trade using the 5-minute chart (not my favorite approach) and when the market moves against them, they move to the 15-minute chart to justify staying in a little longer, hoping that the market will turn around.

Then if the market continues to move against them, they move out to the hourly chart to look for a reason to stay in the trade. As the market continues to move against them, they shift to the daily chart to hope to find a reason to stay in the trade. The next step is to get a margin call because they have no funds left to maintain their position.

Of course, the main issue here is that they were looking for a way to stay in a losing trade rather than closing it out at a small loss. Taking a loss does not mean that you do not know what you are doing. Too many new traders think that losing a trade means that they are losers or that they aren't smart enough to trade. Nothing could be further from the truth though.

Professional traders understand that if they trade, they will have losing trades. That is really the only guarantee in the field of speculation. How you handle those losing trades has as much to do with your success as a trader as any other factor. You don't have to like losing, but you must accept the fact that all trades cannot be winning trades. You have to keep those losing trades small enough to be able to make up for them with your winning trades.

Switching time frames to justify staying in a trade is not how you keep your losses small. Identify your exit point before you get into the trade and stick to it. Judge yourself from month to month rather than on every pip move in the market. Be consistent in your approach and stay in one time frame from the beginning of the trade to the end of the trade

Major Forex Indicators

Certain financial indicators have a history of moving the financial markets when the actual numbers don't match consensus. This article explain what some of the better financial indicators are and the ones traders should pay close attention to when trading the forex market.

APICS Survey - The APICS survey provides detailed information of the manufacturing sector. This survey is less well known than the ISM, but can also suggest trends in production. The diffusion index does not move in tandem with the ISM index each month, but sometimes the two do move in the same direction. Since manufacturing is a major sector of economy, investors can get a feel for the general economic backdrop for several investments. These surveys also play an important role in learning forex trading.

Business Inventories - The degree of inventories in relation to sales is an important signal of the near-term direction of production activity. Investors need to monitor the economy closely because it usually dictates how various types of investments will perform. Growing inventories can be an indication of business optimism that sales will be growing in the coming months. By looking at the proportion of inventories to sales, investors can see whether production demands will expand or contract in the near future. The business inventory data provide a valuable forward-looking tool for traversing the economy and it is greatly used while making forex trading strategies.

Chain Stores Sales - It is monthly sales volumes from department, chain, discount and apparel stores. Sales are reported by the individual retailers. Chain store sales are an indicator of retail sales and consumer spending results. Consumer spending accounts for two-thirds of the economy, so if you know what consumers are up to, you will have a pretty good grip on where the economy is headed. Sales are reported as a change from the same month a year ago. It is significant to know how strong sales actually were a year ago to make sense of this year's sales. In addition, sales are normally reported for "comparable stores" in case of company mergers.

Construction Spending - Data are available in nominal and real (inflation-adjusted) dollars. Because of their forex trading strategies, businesses only put money into construction of new factories or offices when they are sure that demand is strong enough to justify the expansion. The same goes for individuals making the investment in a home. That's why construction spending is a good indicator of the economy's momentum.

Consumer Confidence - It is study of consumer attitudes concerning both the present position as well as expectations regarding economic conditions conducted by The Conference Board. The level of consumer confidence is directly related to the intensity of consumer spending. Consumer spending accounts for two-thirds of the economy, so the markets are always dying to know what consumers are up to and how they might act in the near future. The more confident consumers are about the economy and their own personal finances, the more likely they are to spend. With this in mind, it's easy to see how this index of consumer attitudes gives insight to the way of the economy. Changes in consumer confidence and retail sales don't move in tandem month by month.

Consumer Price Index (CPI) - It is measure of the average price level of a fixed basket of goods and services purchased by consumers. Monthly changes in the CPI represent the inflation rate. The CPI is the most followed indicator of inflation in the United States, some forex training institutes also keeps record of it for training purpose. Inflation is a general increase in the cost of goods and services. The relationship between inflation and interest rates is the key to understanding how data like the CPI influence the markets. By tracking the trends in inflation, whether high or low, ascending or descending, investors can anticipate how different types of investments will perform.

Current account - It is a measure of the country's international trade balance in goods, services and unilateral transfers. The level of the current account, as well as the trends in exports and imports, are followed as indicators of trends in foreign trade. U.S. trade with foreign countries hold significant clues to economic trends here and abroad. According to forex training experts this data can directly affect all the financial markets, and particularly the foreign exchange value of the dollar.

Following a Risk Management Plan

One of the essentials of trading in any investment market is establishing a risk management plan. New traders often jump into the market head first with no real pre-determined trading plan. The outcome can be disastrous in a short period time. The Forex market, just like other investment markets such as the stock market and futures market, require a trading plan that’s free of emotion and heavy on discipline. Only then can a trader’s hard earned money and valuable time translate into respectable profits.

The risk-reward ratio

The risk-reward ratio is basically the risk you’re willing to take to make a certain profit. Any risk management plan that’s worth its money has a decent risk-reward ratio of at least 1:3. What exactly does a 1:3 ratio mean? It means that for every unit of risk you take, you’ll reap three times that amount in reward. A 1:4 ratio means that for every unit of risk you take, you’ll earn four times that amount. The larger the ratio is, the greater reward you make. However, with higher risk-ratios, you’ll have to wait longer to make that trade. You might end up missing some lucrative trades in the interim, and your “ideal” trade might never show up.

Here’s how it works

Let’s say you risk 50 pips (units) to make a deal worth 100 pips. You’re risk-reward ratio is 50/100, or 1:2. If your risk management plan limits your trades of at least a 1:3 ratio, then you shouldn’t make the trade. However, if you risk 50 pips for a potential 150-pip gain (50/150 or 1:3), then it’s worth it.

What about risking more than you can make?

Some investors don’t mind risking more than they can make on a deal. Is this real good advice to follow though? If you’re a real risk taker, then take the chance. But if you’re in the market to make a real profit over the long run, then don’t do it. It is just not sound risk management planning.

Suppose you want to risk 100 pips to make a potential 50 pips. Your risk-ratio is 100:50, or 2:1. That means that you’re willing to give up more than you can make on the deal – not the best logic. True, you can make 50 pips, but you’re risking more than you can even make on the trade.

Creating Profitable Forex Trading Systems in Five Easy Steps

There is an old saying that is loosely translated to 'if I don’t help myself, who will?’ now while this isnt very elloquent, it does convey what i want to tell you.

No entrepreneurship, no success, no money making scheme, is done if you don’t have a hand in it. So don’t rely on what other people can do for you, just get it done for yourself.

Now while this rule applies to everything, it’s specifically useful regarding the forex market (foreign exchange). The forex is the biggest, most liquid market on the planet. Basically it trades currencies and is estimated that over 2 trillion dollars pass hands each day. Just to give you perspective, the new your stock exchange (also a huge endeavor), 'only' processes about 50 billion dollars a day. Get the picture?

I bet I can guess your thoughts right about now. Well, maybe not the actual thought so much as the sentiment. You want some. 2 trillion is too much to be ignored and any person with a sturdy head on their shoulders would want a piece of the action. But in order to do that, you need to know at least the minimum for forex trading.

We understand that you can’t know or operate everything; you will need porters, or advisers or just plain friends to call when you’re in a bind, but don’t you want to be the one to make the call about whets best for you? The only way you can do that is if you learn, so make sure you understand whets going on before you take even a step into the world of forex trading.

How do you start trading Forex?

Now you need to find a forex system that will help you along with your trading. You need to find the right system for you, so don’t ever tire of looking. You can find trading systems all over the market (the internet really) and they could and will help you make hundreds, if not thousands of times over any dime you pay up front.

You might think it’s difficult to get your trading system personalized or up and running in general, even if it’s standard. You might even find it hard to make a choice, but all it ever comes down to is knowledge, and that is what we are here for.

You can find the trading system for you if you just take into account 5 different pointers (that’s it, five!!) but before we get there, there are three things you have to know. So lets start there, and then we can move on to the pointers.

The first things you have to know is don’t fall into the gadget trap.

Just because it’s shiny doesn’t mean you need it. It’s actually, almost on the contrary. The simpler the system the better it will probably be for your forex needs, so stay away from the forex trading/cappuccino making/ironing/phone/camera combo. Stick to the basics and you will be fine. Another thing that should be obvious to you is that you, as your trading system, should be in the business of cutting losses and running with any profit possible.

You need a system that can identify possible profits and (ideally) instantly cut losses. This could save you a great deal of money, so don’t turn on your computer before you’re convinced that this is what your system does. The last of the three things you should know is that you need a system that can recognize long term trends. if your computer is only analyzing days when deciding to sell or buy, then you will never get more then pennies to your dollar, and that just isn’t enough when there are two trillion to be had.

Now lets get to the five must knows when it comes to getting started with the forex market. First of all, your trading system should be simple (for conviction read above). You need an extensive investment management system, but only some essential general rules. Anything more will only confuse your computer and will long term hurt your profit potential.

Secondly, don’t be happy with short term trends; go for the longer weekly based trends so that your profits will really be impressive. If you analyze what happens to the market on daily/hourly charts then it can really understand the market, and only then will you be happy you left your day job.

The third is that the best way to trade in foreign currencies is the breakout method, so ask around, find from peers and experts, and learn all about this method before you get started.

The forth thing that I want to enlighten you with today is that you need to develop a timing tool for your market entrances and exits. Watch for breaks in the market and have them sketched on your chart so that you can see what is going on in the market.

And my last parting words of wisdom? The fifth is that you should have time management become an important part of your chosen system. you need your time to yield the best results, because two trillion isn’t when you want it, its once a day, and days come and go as they please, not at your request.

So get started, there is no doubt in my mind that if you stick to what you have read here then you will be that much closer to becoming a millionaire.

Have fun!!